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Honest History gets it right on spill

The Liberals’ spill vote has been held and Honest History’s Tweet of yesterday was remarkably accurate. At approximately 10 am yesterday this Tweet came from @honesthistory1:

back of envelope calculation on imperfect information suggests around 40 votes for spill; any bids?

In the event, there were 39 votes for the spill. Our prediction was based on consideration of the number of marginal seat holders, some knowledge of previous spills and a few other ingredients.

9 February 2015